Meta Breakdown

Star Wars: Destiny World Championships Top 16 Card Data – Comparing Diversity and Top 10 Lists

Written by Bill Yankosky (aka Yodaman)

The Star Wars Destiny World Championships were held Oct. 18-20, 2019 in Minnesota. FFG’s Matt Holland (#MattHollandForPresident) shared a file with the general public that had the decklists for everyone who played in the event. Following the approach taken with other major events this year, this article will just focus on the decks for players who made the Top 16 at Worlds in order to compare similar amounts of data. We will use the diversity formula we defined in a previous article to compare the Top 16 meta at Worlds with the top cuts of the previous three major events (Gen Con/North American Continental Championship, Euros/Europe Continental Championship and NOVA/North American Grand Championship) according to the values computed. As before, we will focus solely on cards in decks (namely downgrades, upgrades, supports and events) and not the characters, battlefields and plots which were used.

DIVERSITY FORMULA RECAP

To recap our thought is that it seems reasonable to think of the maximum number of different cards that could appear in any set of Top Cut decks, which we will call M, via the following formula rather than the number of cards in the entire card pool:

M = Avg. # different cards of a type in deck * # players in Top Cut

For the decks from the Top 16 at Worlds, we saw they averaged about 17.375 different cards. Using the above formula, we would expect a maximum of 17.375*16 = 278 different cards to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 718 different cards (downgrades, upgrades, supports and events) which can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of M=278, which is about 38.7% of the available card pool when considering diversity.

Using the value M, we then defined the following simple formula to quantify diversity.

Diversity value = Total different cards actually used / M

As mentioned in previous articles, essentially, this simple diversity value represents the proportion of cards that appeared at least once in Top 16 decks from Worlds assuming the maximum number of different cards which we would have expected to appear is M=278, rather than the number of different cards available in the entire card pool (which is 718).

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the Top 16 at Worlds showed that 98 different cards (i.e. downgrades, upgrades, supports and events) appeared in the 16 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value overall for Top 16 decks at Worlds = 98/278 or about 0.353

The following chart compares the diversity value for the Top Cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros, Top Cut at NOVA (17 players) and Top 16 at Worlds. Note that the number of players included for all but Worlds was determined entirely by the number of decklists that had been published in their entirety. For Gen Con and NOVA decklists were published for all players who finished 6-2 and made the top cut of those events. For Euros only the Top 16 was published in its entirety. For Worlds, all decklists for everyone who played in the event were published, but only the Top 16 was used.

Gen Con Euros NOVA Worlds
Overall Diversity 0.291 0.334 0.421 0.353

Using the simple diversity formula, the values indicate that the Worlds Top 16 meta was actually less diverse then than NOVA Top cut meta. However, Worlds was more diverse than Gen Con and Euros in terms of the overall cards used in the decks.

TOP 10 LISTS

We’ll break things down two ways for each category. First, we’ll list how many total copies of a card appeared in the 16 decks. Second, we’ll list how many decks included at least one copy of the card.

We start by looking at the top 10 cards overall (including ties).

Overall Top 10 cards by # copies played in the Top Cut (including ties)

  • Maximum number of copies that could be played was 32 (2 copies of each card)
Total Copies % Max Copies played
Hidden Motive 31 96.88%
Forsaken 24 75%
Desperate Measures 18 56.25%
Automated Defense 17 53.13%
Vader’s Fist 17 53.13%
Delve 16 50%
Probe 16 50%
Megablaster Troopers 15 46.88%
0-0-0 14 43.75%
BT-1 14 43.75%
Dangerous Maneuver 14 43.75%
Respite 14 43.75%

For clarification, when we discuss % Max Copies played of a card, we’re assuming that the maximum that could have been played in the Top 16 decks from Worlds was 32 (2 copies of the card in each of the 16 decks). For Hidden Motive, the most played card, there were 31 copies of it played total out of a maximum possible of 32, which works out to 96.88%. For all four major events analyzed, Hidden Motive was the most widely played card.

Overall Top 10 cards by Number of Top 16 decks card appeared in (including ties)

Card Total Decks Card was In % Decks Card Was In
Hidden Motive 16 100%
Forsaken 12 75%
Automated Defense 10 62.5%
Desperate Measures 9 56.25%
Megablaster Troopers 9 56.25%
Vader’s Fist 9 56.25%
Delve 8 50%
Probe 8 50%
0-0-0 7 43.75%
BT-1 7 43.75%
Crash Landing 7 43.75%
Dangerous Maneuver 7 43.75%
No Good To Me Dead 7 43.75%
Respite 7 43.75%

For clarification, the chart above is listing the number of Top 16 decks at Worlds that had at least 1 copy of the card in the deck. Some decks may have had 2 copies of the card while others only had 1. Hidden Motive actually appeared in every deck that was in the Top 16 at Worlds.

DIGGING DEEPER

In addition to looking at decks as a whole, we can also use the simple formulas to breakdown the data into smaller categories. Namely, we can look just at downgrades or just at upgrades, etc.. in the Top 16 decks from Worlds.

DOWNGRADES

Two downgrades appeared in the Top 16 decks. Those downgrades were Dead or Alive and Mind Extraction.

For the decks from the Top 16 at Worlds, an analysis of the decklists showed they averaged 0.3125 different downgrades. Using the previous formula, we would expect a maximum of 0.3125*16 = 5 different downgrades to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 20 different downgrades which can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of 5, which is just 25% of the available downgrades in the card pool, when considering diversity just for downgrades.

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the Top 16 decks from Worlds showed that only 2 downgrades appeared in the 16 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value for Downgrades at Worlds = 2/5 or 0.4.

The following chart compares the diversity value for downgrades played during the Top Cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros, Top Cut at NOVA (17 players) and Top 16 at Worlds.

Gen Con Euros NOVA Worlds
Downgrade Diversity 0.333 1* 0.333 0.4

*there was only 1 downgrade total in all the Top 16 Euros top cut decks. Because of the way the formula works, that meant the downgrades were as diverse as possible. The small sample size for downgrades is a factor here.

UPGRADES

For the decks from the Top 16 at Worlds, an analysis of the decklists showed they averaged about 3.8125 different upgrades. Using the previous formula, we would expect a maximum of 3.8125*16 = 61 different upgrades to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 163 different upgrades that can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of 61, which is about 37.4% of the available upgrades in the card pool when considering diversity just for upgrades.

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the Top 16 decks at Worlds showed that 33 different upgrades appeared in the 16 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value for Upgrades at Worlds = 33/61 or about 0.541.

The following chart compares the diversity value for upgrades played during the Top Cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros, Top Cut at NOVA (17 players) and Top 16 at Worlds. These simple diversity values indicate that the Top 16 at Worlds meta was actually the most diverse of the four major events in terms of upgrades played.

Gen Con Euros NOVA Worlds
Upgrade Diversity 0.342 0.448 0.535 0.541

The following charts give the top 10 upgrades in terms of # of copies played in total as well as the # of decks in the Top 16 at Worlds that included the upgrade.

Top 10 Upgrades by Number of Copies Played in the Top Cut (including ties).

Upgrades Total Copies % Max Copies played
Niman Mastery 6 18.75%
Salvaged Arm 6 18.75%
Dagger of Mortis 5 15.63%
Ezra Bridger’s Lightsaber 5 15.63%
Grappling Arm 5 15.63%
Riot Shield 5 15.63%
Rocket Booster 5 15.63%
Crossguard Lightsaber 4 12.5%
Modular Frame 4 12.5%
Soresu Mastery 4 12.5%
Treasured Lightsaber 4 12.5%

Top 10 Upgrades by Number of Top Cut decks card appeared in (including ties).

Upgrades Total Decks Card was In % Decks Card Was In
Dagger of Mortis 5 31.25%
Ezra Bridger’s Lightsaber 5 31.25%
Chewbacca’s Blaster Rifle 3 18.75%
Grappling Arm 3 18.75%
Niman Mastery 3 18.75%
Riot Shield 3 18.75%
Rocket Booster 3 18.75%
Salvaged Arm 3 18.75%
Crossguard Lightsaber 2 12.5%
Enfys Nest’s Electroripper 2 12.5%
Modular Frame 2 12.5%
Rex’s Blaster Pistol 2 12.5%
Rey’s Lightsaber 2 12.5%
Soresu Mastery 2 12.5%
Treasured Lightsaber 2 12.5%
Yoda’s Lightsaber 2 12.5%

SUPPORTS

For the decks from Top 16 at Worlds, an analysis of the decklists showed they averaged 3.6875 different supports. Using the previous formula, we would expect a maximum of 3.6875*16 = 59 different supports to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 150 different supports that can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of 59, which is about 39.33% of the available supports in the card pool when considering diversity just for supports.

A detailed analysis of the decklists from Top at Worlds showed that 18 different supports appeared in the 16 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value for Supports at Worlds = 18/59 or about 0.3051.

The following chart compares the diversity value for supports played during the Top Cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros, Top Cut at NOVA (17 players) and Top 16 at Worlds. By comparison, the simple diversity values indicate that the Top 16 at Worlds was noticeably less diverse than the NOVA Top cut meta. However, Worlds was slightly more diverse than Gen Con and Euros in terms of supports used.

Gen Con Euros NOVA Worlds
Support Diversity 0.293 0.297 0.448 0.3051

The following charts give the top 10 Supports in terms of # of copies played in total, as well as the # of Top 16 decks from Worlds that included the support.

Top 10 Supports by Number of Copies Played in the Top Cut (including ties).

Supports Total Copies % Max Copies played
Vader’s Fist 17 53.13%
Megablaster Troopers 15 46.88%
0-0-0 14 43.75%
BT-1 14 43.75%
Assassin Droid 11 34.38%
Fickle Mercenaries 6 18.75%
Conscript Squad 4 12.5%
Forbidden Lore 4 12.5%
Luke’s Protection 3 9.38%
Resistance Crait Speeder 3 9.38%
Senate Chamber 3 9.38%

Top 10 Supports by Number of Top Cut decks card appeared in (including ties)

Supports Total Decks Card was In % Decks Card Was In
Megablaster Troopers 9 56.25%
Vader’s Fist 9 56.25%
0-0-0 7 43.75%
BT-1 7 43.75%
Assassin Droid 6 37.5%
Fickle Mercenaries 3 18.75%
Senate Chamber 3 18.75%
Conscript Squad 2 12.5%
Forbidden Lore 2 12.5%
Luke’s Protection 2 12.5%
Resistance Crait Speeder 2 12.5%

EVENTS

For the Top 16 decks from Worlds, an analysis of the decklists showed they averaged about 9.5625 different events. Using the previous formula, we would expect a maximum of 9.5625*16 = 153 different events to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 385 different events which can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of 153, which is about 39.7% of the available events in the card pool when considering diversity just for events.

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the Worlds Top Cut showed that 45 different events appeared in the 16 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value for Events at Worlds = 45/153 or about 0.2941.

The following chart compares the diversity value for events played during the Top Cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros, Top Cut at NOVA (17 players) and Top 16 at Worlds. These simple diversity values indicate that the Top 16 decks at Worlds were noticeably less diverse than the NOVA Top cut meta was in terms of events played. It was also slightly less diverse than Euros, but slightly more diverse than Gen Con.

Gen Con Euros NOVA Worlds
Events Diversity 0.276 0.306 0.366 0.2941

The following charts give the top 10 Events in terms of # of copies played in total, as well as the # of decks in the Top 16 at Worlds that included the Event.

Top 10 Events by Number of Copies Played in the Top Cut (including ties).

Events Total Copies % Max Copies played
Hidden Motive 31 96.88%
Forsaken 24 75%
Desperate Measures 18 56.25%
Automated Defense 17 53.13%
Delve 16 50%
Probe 16 50%
Dangerous Maneuver 14 43.75%
Respite 14 43.75%
Crash Landing 13 40.63%
No Good To Me Dead 12 37.5%

 Top 10 Events by Number of Top Cut decks card appeared in (including ties).

Events Total Decks Card was In % Decks Card Was In
Hidden Motive 16 100%
Forsaken 12 75%
Automated Defense 10 62.5%
Desperate Measures 9 56.25%
Delve 8 50%
Probe 8 50%
Crash Landing 7 43.75%
Dangerous Maneuver 7 43.75%
No Good To Me Dead 7 43.75%
Respite 7 43.75%

It’s been very interesting to take a deeper look at the Top 10 lists of cards played in the Top 16 decks from Worlds and to apply the diversity formula defined in my previous article to the Top 16 cuts at Worlds, Top Cut at Gen Con, Top 16 Euros and Top Cut NOVA in order to have one measure that could be used to compare diversity. The NOVA top cut had the highest diversity value when looking just at supports played, just at events played and overall cards played. The Top 16 at Worlds had the highest diversity value in terms of just looking at upgrades played. Because of the small number of downgrades played at all the events, it’s hard to actually compare those diversity values and draw conclusions. Overall, it’s still a bit surprising that the NOVA Top Cut had the highest diversity value in the majority of categories (3 of the 5) considering the recent changes and nerfs were most likely put into place in order to try to increase diversity. Based on these values, it appears the Top 16 at Worlds was less diverse than the top cut at NOVA.

Thanks to everyone who took the time to read this article and look at the data and numbers involved.

Thanks again to I Rebel for allowing me to contribute this article.

May the Force Be With You!

 

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