Article

Star Wars: Destiny U.S. Grand Championships Card Data – Comparing Diversity and Top 10 Lists

Written by Bill Yankosky (aka Yodaman)

The NOVA Open hosted the Star Wars Destiny U.S. Grand Championships on Aug. 31st – Sept. 1st. Thanks to YOUR Destiny and others, we were able to obtain the decklists for all players who made the top cut with 6-2 records or better. We can now take a look at which cards showed up in the 17 decks and use the diversity formula we defined in a previous article to determine if the Top Cut meta has become more or less diverse over the course of the past three major events (Gen Con aka. the North American Continental Championship, Euros aka. the European Continental Championship and NOVA aka. the U.S. Grand Championship) according to the values computed. As before, we will focus solely on cards in decks (namely downgrades, upgrades, supports and events) and not the characters, battlefields and plots which were used.

DIVERSITY FORMULA RECAP

To recap our thought is that it is reasonable to think of the maximum number of different cards that could appear in top cut decks, which we will call M, via the following formula rather than the number of cards in the entire card pool:

M = Avg. # different cards of a type in deck * # players in Top Cut

For the 17 decks from the NOVA U.S. Grand Championship top cut, we saw they averaged about 17.882 different cards. Using the above formula, we would expect a maximum of 17.882*17 = 304 different cards to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 718 different cards (downgrades, upgrades, supports and events) which can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of M=304, which is about 42.3% of the available card pool when considering diversity.

Using the value M, we then defined the following simple formula to quantify diversity.

Diversity value = Total different cards actually used / M

As mentioned in previous articles, essentially, this simple diversity value represents the proportion of cards that appeared at least once in top cut decks assuming the maximum number of different cards which we would have expected to appear is M=304, rather than the number of different cards available in the entire card pool (which is 718).

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the top cut at NOVA showed that 128 different cards (i.e. downgrades, upgrades, supports and events) appeared in the 17 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value overall for NOVA Top Cut Decks = 128/304 or about 0.421

The following chart compares the diversity value for all cards played in the top cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros and Top Cut at NOVA (17 players). Note that the amount of players included for each event was determined by the number of decklists which had been published in their entirety. For Gen Con and NOVA all decklists were published for all players who finished 6-2 and made the Top Cut of those events. For Euros only the Top 16 was published in its entirety.

Gen Con

Euros

NOVA

Overall Diversity

0.291

0.334

0.421

Using the simple diversity formula, the values indicate that the NOVA top cut meta was noticeably more diverse than Gen Con and Euros in terms of the overall cards used in the decks.

TOP 10 LISTS

We’ll break things down two ways for each category. First, we’ll list how many total copies of a card appeared in the 17 decks. Second, we’ll list how many decks included at least one copy of the card.

We start by looking at the top 10 cards overall (including ties).

Overall Top 10 cards by # copies played in the Top Cut (including ties)

  • NOVA top cut was 17 players
  • Maximum number of copies that could be played was 34 (2 copies of each card)
Card

Total # Copies Played

% Max Copies Played

Hidden Motive

25

73.53%

Forsaken

16

47.06%

Automated Defense

15

44.12%

Electromagnetic Pulse

15

44.12%

Easy Pickings

14

41.18%

Fickle Mercenaries

13

38.24%

Desperate Measures

12

35.29%

Entourage

12

35.29%

Field Medic

12

35.29%

Probe

9

26.47%

Truce

9

26.47%

For clarification, when we discuss % Max Copies played of a card, we’re assuming that the maximum that could have been played was 34 (2 copies of the card in each of the 17 decks). For Hidden Motive, the most played card, there were 25 copies of it played total out of a maximum possible of 34, which works out to 73.53%. For all three major events analyzed (Gen Con, Euros and NOVA), Hidden Motive was the most widely played card.

Overall Top 10 cards by Number of Top 16 decks card appeared in (including ties)

Card

Total # Decks Card was In

% Decks Card was In

Hidden Motive

14

82.35%

Electromagnetic Pulse

10

58.82%

Automated Defense

8

47.06%

Forsaken

8

47.06%

Easy Pickings

7

41.18%

Fickle Mercenaries

7

41.18%

Chewbacca’s Blaster Rifle

6

35.29%

Desperate Measures

6

35.29%

Entourage

6

35.29%

Ezra Bridger’s Lightsaber

6

35.29%

Field Medic

6

35.29%

For clarification, the chart above is listing the number of NOVA top cut decks that had at least 1 copy of the card in the deck. Some decks may have had 2 copies of the card while others only had 1.

DIGGING DEEPER

In addition to looking at decks as a whole, we can also use the simple formulas to breakdown the data into smaller categories. Namely, we can look just at downgrades or just at upgrades, etc.. in the Gen Con Top Cut decks.

DOWNGRADES

The only downgrade that appeared in any top cut decks was Target Acquired. 1 copy of that appeared total.

For the 17 decks from the NOVA Top Cut, an analysis of the decklists showed they averaged 0.1764 different downgrades. Using the previous formula, we would expect a maximum of 0.1764*17 = 3 different downgrade to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 20 different downgrades which can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of 3, which is just 15 % of the available downgrades in the card pool, when considering diversity just for downgrades.

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the NOVA top cut showed that only 1 downgrade appeared in the 17 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value for Downgrades at NOVA = 1/3 or 0.333.

Since there was only 1 downgrade which appeared at all, there are no Top 10 lists for downgrades. There’s just a #1. With so few downgrades played in the game, the formula is affected by the small sample size here.

The following chart compares the diversity value for the downgrades played in the Top Cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros and Top Cut at NOVA (17 players).

Gen Con

Euros

NOVA

Downgrade Diversity

0.333

1*

0.333

*there was only 1 downgrade total in all the Top 16 Euros top cut decks. Because of the way the formula works, that meant the downgrades were as diverse as possible. The small sample size is a factor here. The only downgrade to appear in any of the three events was Target Acquired.

UPGRADES

For the decks from the NOVA Top Cut, an analysis of the decklists showed they averaged about 4.176 different upgrades. Using the previous formula, we would expect a maximum of 4.176*17 = 71 different upgrades to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 163 different upgrades which can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of 71, which is about 43.6% of the available upgrades in the card pool, when considering diversity just for upgrades.

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the NOVA top cut decks showed that 38 different upgrades appeared in the 17 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value for Upgrades at NOVA = 38/71 or about 0.535.

The following chart compares the diversity value for the upgrades played in the Top Cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros and Top Cut at NOVA (17 players).

Gen Con

Euros

NOVA

Upgrade Diversity

0.342

0.448

0.535

These simple diversity values indicate that the NOVA top cut meta was noticeably more diverse than Gen Con and Euros in terms of upgrades played.

The following charts give the top 10 upgrades in terms of # of copies played in total as well as the # of decks that included the upgrade.

Top 10 Upgrades by Number of Copies Played in the Top Cut (including ties).

Upgrades

Total # Copies Played

% Max Copies Played

Chewbacca’s Blaster Rifle

8

23.53%

Handheld LS-1 Cannon

7

20.59%

Niman Mastery

7

20.59%

Ezra Bridger’s Lightsaber

6

17.65%

Riot Shield

6

17.65%

Treasured Lightsaber

6

17.65%

Palpatine’s Lightsaber

5

14.71%

Grappling Arm

4

11.76%

Salvaged Arm

4

11.76%

Soresu Mastery

4

11.76%

Soresu Training

4

11.76%

Top 10 Upgrades by Number of Top Cut decks card appeared in (including ties).

Upgrades

Total # Decks Card was In

% Decks Card was In

Chewbacca’s Blaster Rifle

6

35.29%

Ezra Bridger’s Lightsaber

6

35.29%

Handheld LS-1 Cannon

4

23.53%

Niman Mastery

4

23.53%

Dagger of Mortis

3

17.65%

Palpatine’s Lightsaber

3

17.65%

Riot Shield

3

17.65%

Treasured Lightsaber

3

17.65%

DX-2 Disruptor Blaster Pistol

2

11.76%

Grappling Arm

2

11.76%

Han Solo’s Blaster

2

11.76%

Jyn Erso’s Blaster

2

11.76%

Rey’s Lightsaber

2

11.76%

Rocket Booster

2

11.76%

Salvaged Arm

2

11.76%

Soresu Mastery

2

11.76%

Soresu Training

2

11.76%

SUPPORTS

For the decks from the Euros top 16, an analysis of the decklists showed they averaged 3.412 different supports. Using the previous formula, we would expect a maximum of 3.412*17 = 58 different supports to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 150 different supports which can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of 58, which is about 38.7% of the available supports in the card pool, when considering diversity just for supports.

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the NOVA top cut showed that 26 different supports appeared in the 17 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value for Supports at NOVA = 26/58 or about 0.448.

The following chart compares the diversity value for the upgrades played in the top cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros and Top Cut at NOVA (17 players).

Gen Con

Euros

NOVA

Support Diversity

0.293

0.297

0.448

These simple diversity values indicate that the NOVA top cut meta was noticeably more diverse than Gen Con and Euros in terms of supports played.

The following charts give the top 10 supports in terms of # of copies played in total, as well as the # of top cut decks that included the support.

Top 10 Supports by Number of Copies Played in the Top Cut (including ties).

Supports

Total # Copies Played

% Max Copies Played

Fickle Mercenaries

13

38.24%

Entourage

12

35.29%

Megablaster Troopers

8

23.53%

Vader’s Fist

8

23.53%

Resistance Crait Speeder

7

20.59%

Hired Muscle

6

17.65%

Umbaran Hover Tank

6

17.65%

0-0-0

4

11.76%

Assassin Droid

4

11.76%

BT-1

4

11.76%

Forbidden Lore

4

11.76%

Top 10 Supports by Number of Top Cut decks card appeared in (including ties).

Supports

Total # Decks Card was In

% Decks Card was In

Fickle Mercenaries

7

41.18%

Entourage

6

35.29%

Hired Muscle

4

23.53%

Megablaster Troopers

4

23.53%

Resistance Crait Speeder

4

23.53%

Vader’s Fist

4

23.53%

Umbaran Hover Tank

3

17.65%

0-0-0

2

11.76%

Assassin Droid

2

11.76%

BT-1

2

11.76%

Forbidden Lore

2

11.76%

Luke’s Protection

2

11.76%

R2-D2 (Legacies)

2

11.76%

Republic Cruiser

2

11.76%

EVENTS

For the NOVA top cut decks, an analysis of the decklists showed they averaged about 10.118 different events. Using the previous formula, we would expect a maximum of 10.118*17 = 172 different events to have shown up in those decks. Overall, there are 385 different events which can be included in Destiny decks in the Standard format. But our formula tells us it is more reasonable to use the value of 172, which is about 44.7% of the available events in the card pool when considering diversity just for events.

A detailed analysis of the decklists from the NOVA top cut showed that 63 different events appeared in the 17 decks. Using our simple diversity formula we get

Diversity value for Events at NOVA = 63/172 or about 0.366

The following chart compares the diversity value for the events played in the top cut at Gen Con (22 players), Top 16 at Euros and Top Cut at NOVA (17 players).

Gen Con

Euros

NOVA

Event Diversity

0.276

0.306

0.366

These simple diversity values indicate that the NOVA top cut meta was somewhat more diverse than Gen Con and Euros in terms of events played.

The following charts give the top 10 events in terms of # of copies played in total, as well as the # of Top Cut decks that included the event.

Top 10 Events by Number of Copies Played in the Top Cut (including ties).

Events

Total # Copies Played

% Max Copies Played

Hidden Motive

25

73.53%

Forsaken

16

47.06%

Automated Defense

15

44.12%

Electromagnetic Pulse

15

44.12%

Easy Pickings

14

41.18%

Desperate Measures

12

35.29%

Field Medic

12

35.29%

Probe

9

26.47%

Truce

9

26.47%

A Sinister Peace

7

20.59%

Doubt

7

20.59%

Ewok Ambush

7

20.59%

Pacify

7

20.59%

Top 10 Events by Number of Top Cut decks card appeared in (including ties).

Events

Total # Decks Card was In

% Decks Card was In

Hidden Motive

14

82.35%

Electromagnetic Pulse

10

58.82%

Automated Defense

8

47.06%

Forsaken

8

47.06%

Easy Pickings

7

41.18%

Desperate Measures

6

35.29%

Field Medic

6

35.29%

A Sinister Peace

5

29.41%

Doubt

5

29.41%

Pacify

5

29.41%

Probe

5

29.41%

Truce

5

29.41%

Since I’m a numbers guy, it’s been fun taking a deeper look at the Top 10 lists of cards played in the NOVA top cut decks and applying the diversity formula defined in my previous article to the top cuts at Gen Con, Euros and NOVA in order to have one measure that could be used to compare diversity. Obviously diversity depends on one’s point of view and there are different ways that could be developed to measure it, but according to the measure I defined, it appears the overall meta was more diverse at U.S. Nationals than it was at Gen Con and Euros, at least in terms of more cards being played in decks in general.

Thanks to everyone who took the time to read this article and look at the data and numbers involved Thanks again to I Rebel for allowing me to contribute this article.

May the Force Be With You!

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